Reports and publications

Project reports

Download the full 235 page report here, or read the executive summary for an overview of the report.

Final report (PDF, 6.1 Mb) 
Executive summary (PDF, 2.3 Mb) 
Action plan (PDF, 622 Kb) 
Scenarios (PDF, 623 Kb) 

Executive summary in other languages:

• Chinese (PDF, 1.3 Mb) 
• Arabic (PDF, 1.4 Mb) 
• French (PDF, 460 Kb) 
• German (PDF, 933 Kb) 
• Spanish (PDF, 876 Kb) 
• Russian (PDF, 1.1 Mb) 

Hard copies of the final report and executive summary are available. Please contact us to make a request.

Ghana workshop

• Workshop report (PDF, 656 Kb) 
• Workshop concept note (PDF, 242 Kb) 

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Evidence base

Driver reviews

• DR1: Migrant destinations in an era of environmental change (PDF, 301 Kb)  - Allan M. Findlay
• DR2: Sub-Saharan African urbanisation and global environmental change (PDF, 834 Kb)  - Susan Parnell, Ruwani Walawege
• DR3: The future of global migration and the impact of environmental change (PDF, 3.5 Mb)  - Ian Goldin
• DR5: The search for safety: The effects of conflict, poverty and ecological influences on migration in the developing world (PDF, 1.4 Mb)  - Clionadh Raleigh
• DR6: Environmental and non-environmental drivers of migration from global drylands (PDF, 9.3 Mb)  - Mark Stafford Smith, Gary Bastin and Vanessa Chewings
• DR7a: Changes in ecosystem services and migration in low-lying coastal areas over the next 50 years (PDF, 3.5 Mb)  - Robert Costanza, Ida Kubiszewski, Joe Roman and Paul Sutton
• DR8a: Quantifying change in ecosystem services and exposure to hazards in the Mediterranean basin over the next 50 years that might be relevant to migration (PDF, 4.7 Mb)  - Sophia M. Burke, Mark Mulligan, Katherine Parks and Arnout van Soesbergen
• DR8b: Mediterranean migration futures: Patterns, drivers and scenarios (PDF, 637 Kb)  - Hein de Haas
• DR9: Drivers of migration in mountainous regions of the developing world: a review (PDF, 498 Kb)  - Michael Kollmair and Soumyadeep Banerjee
• DR10: Quantitative analysis of determinants of international migration (PDF, 759 Kb)  - Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler
• DR11: Future demographic change and its interactions with migration and climate change (PDF, 1.3 Mb)  - Graeme Hugo
• DR12: The impacts of environmental change on UK internal migration (PDF, 340 Kb)  - A.J. Fielding
• DR13: Review of legal and political framework which affects migration, including institutional architecture and capacity, and how it is affected by future environmental change (PDF, 358 Kb)  - Susan F. Martin
• DR14: Review of the social drivers of migration (PDF, 465 Kb)  - Sarah Collinson
• DR15: The impact of low-carbon policy on migration (PDF, 1.2 Mb)  - Michael Reilly and Yasmin Hossain
• DR16: Small island states and islands: economies, ecosystems, change and migration (PDF, 1.5 Mb)  - John Connell
• DR16 Appendix (XLSX, 43 Kb) 

State of science reviews

• SR1: How is the frequency, location and severity of extreme events likely to change up to 2060? (PDF, 181 Kb)  - Clare M. Goodess
• SR2: What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to the likelihood and potential impact on ecosystem services of futurechange in the large-scale climate system? (PDF, 729 Kb)  - Simon N. Gosling
• SR3: What is the evidence for changing variability in climates from year to year? (PDF, 761 Kb)  - Richard Betts and Doug McNeall
• SR4: What early-warning systems are there for environmental shocks? (PDF, 439 Kb)  - Timothy M. Lenton
• SR4b: Early warning in the context of environmental shocks: demographic change, dynamic exposure to hazards, and the role of EWS in migration flows and human displacement (PDF, 3.6 Mb)  - Denis Chang Seng and Jörn Birkmann
• SR5: What mechanisms are there for reacting to environmental shocks? (PDF, 227 Kb)  - Dr Andrew E. Collins
• SR6: What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting? (PDF, 1.1 Mb)  - Doug Smith, Adam Scaife and Ben Kirtman
• SR8: The possible impacts of high levels of climate change in 2060 and implications for migration (PDF, 1.1 Mb)  - Mark New, Kevin Anderson, Fai Fung and Phillip Thornton
• SR10: Specification for a state of science review: wildland fires (PDF, 269 Kb)  - Johann Georg Goldammer and Brian J. Stocks
• SR11: Wildfires and migration (PDF, 170 Kb)  - John Handmer and Andreana Reale
• SR12: Environmental changes and violent conflict. (PDF, 237 Kb)  - Thomas Bernauer, Vally Koubi, and Tobias Böhmelt
• SR13: Are there examples of remittances being used to build local resilience to environmental change, especially through investment in soil and water conservation or broader agriculture? (PDF, 497 Kb)  - Priya Deshingkar
• SR14: Microinsurance and climatic-related disasters: challenges and options (PDF, 154 Kb)  - Daniel Clarke and Dermot Grenham
• SR15: Macroeconomic management of extreme events. (PDF, 265 Kb)  - Christopher Adam
• SR16: New technologies and the monitoring and management of migration flows and population displacement (PDF, 207 Kb)  - Dennis Broeders
• SR17: The economic growth impact of sea-level rise (PDF, 203 Kb)  - Stéphane Hallegatte
• SR18: Evolving economies: what returns does migration provide for destination countries? (PDF, 180 Kb)  - Stephen Drinkwater
• SR19: The economic growth impacts of extreme events (PDF, 215 Kb)  - David L. Bevan
• SR20: What would be the impact on the future global migration system – and, specifically, on environmental migration – if the Colombo Process succeeded in its aims (i.e. relatively free mobility takes place within Asia, including to the Gulf region)? (PDF, 197 Kb)  - Binod Khadria

Policy development reviews

• PD1: Improving urban living conditions in Kuyasa (Cape Town) through energy-efficiency retrofits: the impact on low-income communities (PDF, 907 Kb)  - Vivienne Walsh, Carl Wesselink and Andrew Janisch
• PD4: Mitigating conflict and violence in Africa’s rapidly growing cities (PDF, 172 Kb)  - Jo Beall and Sean Fox
• PD6: Past UK experience of the arrival of populations displaced by extreme events (PDF, 215 Kb)  - Professor Heaven Crawley
• PD7: Environment, migration and the demographic deficit (PDF, 291 Kb)  - Sarah Harper
• PD11: Conflict management mechanisms in resource-constrained African communities (PDF, 163 Kb)  - Gilbert M. Khadiagala and Jacob M. Mati
• PD12: How effective are migration and non-migration policies that affect forced migration? (PDF, 212 Kb)  - Eiko Thielemann
• PD13: International migration in the Mashriq countries: past trends, future potentials and determinants – possible implications for environmental migration? (PDF, 254 Kb)  - Ahmet Icduygu and Deniz Sert
• PD15: Creating space for action: options for small island states to cope with global environmental change - Achim Maas and Alexander Carius (PDF, 190 Kb) 
• PD16: Global environmental governance and climate change-induced migration (PDF, 153 Kb)  - Frank Biermann
• PD17: Environmental migration governance: debate in the European Union (PDF, 201 Kb)  - Will Somerville
• PD18: The European Union: coordinating environment and migration policies? (PDF, 187 Kb)  - Andrew Jordan
• PD19: The European Union’s role in migration up to 2030 and then 2060 (PDF, 210 Kb)  - Randall Hansen
• PD21: Financial instruments for vulnerable locations. (PDF, 235 Kb)  - Nick Silver and Brian Potskowski
• PD23: Migration and displacement in the context of adaptation to climate change: developments in the UNFCCC climate negotiations and potential for future action. (PDF, 719 Kb)  - Koko Warner

Case studies

• CS1: The Katrina exodus: internal displacements and unequal outcomes (PDF, 633 Kb)  - Susan L. Cutter
• CS2: Lessons learnt from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami (PDF, 218 Kb)  - Nishara Fernando and Asitha G. Punchihewa
• CS4: Population movement in response to climate-related hazards in Bangladesh: the ‘last resort’ (PDF, 842 Kb)  - Edmund Penning-Rowsell, Parvin Sultana and Paul Thompson
• CS6: Conflict, migration and the environment: the case of Zimbabwe (PDF, 899 Kb)  - Dr JoAnn McGregor with Luca Marazzi and Dr Busani Mpofu
• CS8: Is the EU offloading future migration issues to the ‘southern neighbourhood’?: Thinking environmental migration in relation to externalisation (PDF, 195 Kb)  - Ali Bilgic
• CS10: The impact of environmental change on labour migration from Nepal to the Gulf States (PDF, 159 Kb)  - Jeevan R. Sharma
• CS11: A review on the potential risks associated with development of new eco-cities in India in relation to climate risks/urbanisation. Case study: Mumbai - Pune region (PDF, 256 Kb)  - Ayona Datta
• CS12: Water, conflict and migration in the Eastern Mediterranean (PDF, 251 Kb)  - Jan Selby and Clemens Hoffmann

Case study reviews

• CR1: Settlement abandonment in the context of global environmental change - Robert A. McLeman (PDF, 780 Kb) 
• CR2: The links between environmental change and migration: a livelihoods approach - Cecilia Tacoli (PDF, 180 Kb) 

Modelling reviews

• MR2: Agent-based model simulations of future changes in migration flows for Burkina Faso (PDF, 855 Kb)  - Dominic Kniveton, Christopher Smith, Sharon Wood
• MR3: Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCs (PDF, 357 Kb)  - Helene Bie Lilleør, Katleen Van den Broeck
• MR4: Estimating net migration by ecosystem and by decade: 1970–2010 (PDF, 4.9 Mb)  - Alex de Sherbinin, Marc Levy, Susana Adamo, Kytt MacManus, Greg Yetman, Valentina Mara, Liana Razafindrazay, Benjamin Goodrich, Tanja Srebotnjak, Cody Aichele, and Linda Pistolesi
• MR5: Review of data and predictions about attitudes to migration and the environment (PDF, 1.5 Mb)  - Christian Dustmann and Anna Okatenko
• MR7: Why the numbers don’t add up: A review of estimates and predictions of people displaced by environmental changes (PDF, 288 Kb)  - François Gemenne
• MR8: Model specification and results of Bayesian forecasts of total and environmental immigration to the United Kingdom, 2010–2060 (PDF, 957 Kb)  - Guy J Abel, Jakub Bijak, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, Allan Findlay and David McCollum
• MR9: Analysis of land area and population in the low-elevation coastal zone (LECZ) (PDF, 3.4 Mb)  - Vafeidis, B. Neumann, J. Zimmermann and R.J. Nicholls

Workshop reports

• WR1 Mountains workshop (PDF, 823 Kb) 
• WR2 Drylands workshop (PDF, 880 Kb) 
• WR3 Low lying coastal zones workshop (PDF, 500 Kb) 
• WR4 Mediterranean workshop (PDF, 524 Kb) 

Working papers

• WP1: What would be the long-term (25–50 years) impact on the global migration system – and, specifically, on environmental migration – if, for whatever reason, people no longer wanted to gain entry to the USA? (PDF, 141 Kb)  - Kathleen Newland and Demetrios Papademetriou
• WP2: Lessons to learn from Curitiba – fastest urbanisation rate with a higher standard of living than its neighbours (PDF, 139 Kb)  - Jaime Lerner
• WP3: Climate change adaptation and mitigation: implications for land acquisition and population relocation (PDF, 210 Kb)  - Dr Christopher McDowell
• WP4: Drivers of migration in household surveys (PDF, 212 Kb)  - Laura Chappell

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